The Renewables 2024 webinar, presented by the IEA on October 23, 2024, provided a detailed insight into the evolution of renewable energies up to 2030. Through a series of forecasts and regional analyses, the report highlights the key role of renewable technologies in addressing global climate challenges and outlines the path towards tripling global installed capacity by 2030, as agreed upon during COP28.

According to projections, global renewable energy capacity is set to exceed government ambitions by 25%, with nearly 70 countries achieving or surpassing their targets. By 2030, renewable energy will account for approximately 80% of the global energy capacity, with significant increases in cumulative capacity from 4,000 GW in 2022 to nearly 10,000 GW by 2030.

Solar photovoltaic (PV) will dominate the expansion of renewables, representing up to 80% of the new global renewable capacity. Thanks to cost competitiveness, shorter permitting timelines, and widespread social acceptance, PV is set for large-scale growth, both in residential and commercial sectors.

By 2030, China will install over 3200 GW of new renewable capacity, representing 60% of global growth. The country has demonstrated the ability to rapidly expand its renewable portfolio without relying on government subsidies, thanks to its leadership in solar panel production.

India is poised to grow at the fastest rate among all countries, contributing half of the renewable energy growth in the Asia-Pacific region by 2030. This growth is driven by competitive auctions, which encourage large-scale solar PV projects.

Despite their potential, advanced economies continue to face significant challenges in accelerating renewable energy growth. The main obstacles include inadequate grid infrastructure, lengthy permitting processes, and a lack of flexibility in the system. In particular, high financing costs and policy uncertainty in emerging markets represent major hurdles to accelerating the transition.

In Europe, the boom in solar photovoltaics will make it the leading renewable technology by 2030. However, significant challenges related to wind energy growth remain, which could hinder Europe’s ability to meet its renewable goals. Renewable energy auctions will continue to drive large-scale growth in the sector.

In the United States, incentives provided by the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) are already fueling significant growth in solar installations. It is projected that by 2030, the country will add nearly 500 GW of new renewable capacity, with solar leading the energy mix.

In Latin America, Brazil will maintain its position as the leader, holding more than 50% of the region’s renewable capacity by 2030. Chile is also set to double its installed renewable capacity, with solar PV reaching hydropower as the leading technology.

Biofuels and biogas will play an increasingly important role in the global energy mix by 2030. Demand for biofuels is expected to grow significantly, particularly in the aviation and maritime sectors, supported by targeted policies in countries like the United States and the European Union.

The Renewables 2024 report offers an optimistic vision of the global energy transition. Renewable energy is on track to exceed expectations and play a crucial role in combating climate change. However, to accelerate this transition, it will be essential to overcome challenges related to infrastructure, regulation, and financing, particularly in emerging markets.