COP28 was a landmark moment in the international climate fight. For the first time, nations agreed on a global transition away from fossil fuels, marking an historic moment. This agreement, known as the UAE consensus, acknowledged the need to cut emissions while recognising the challenges faced by both developed and developing nations. Yet, it wasn’t without controversy.
While COP28 delivered hope, it was confidence tinged with compromise. Countries will need to fight forward with determination if we are to limit global warming to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels, and we look to COP29 to help us better navigate this path.

As COP29 approaches, hosted this year in Baku, Azerbaijan, the stakes have never been higher. In the last year, the world has been battered by devastating weather events that have not only made headlines but have left countless communities in crisis. In Spain, we just witnessed the deadliest natural disaster of the century, with the floods claiming over 200 lives. In Italy, the summer heatwave of 2024 saw temperatures climb to 46°C, forcing farmers to watch helplessly as their crops declined. Across the Atlantic, wildfires in Canada turned the skies from New York City to Malta an eerie orange, triggering widespread air quality warnings and forcing millions to stay indoors.

Floods have also devastated parts of South Asia, and in East Africa, severe droughts have pushed people further into famine-like conditions. Communities across the globe are already struggling significantly, making the call for meaningful climate action at COP29 beyond dispute.

2024 saw the first 365-day period from February to February where global temperatures rose above the 1.5°C threshold, marking a dangerous step beyond one of the key limits set by the Paris Agreement. This rise has been accompanied by troubling trends as highlighted. But climate change does more than just disrupt lives; it weakens economies and destabilises entire communities. The financial and human cost of inaction is mounting, and as we look towards COP29, we place hope in the fact that the discussions will translate into more decisive action to mitigate these impacts.

1. Increased ambition on emission reductions
   Countries are expected to come forward with updated nationally determined contributions (NDCs). There is pressure for nations, particularly major emitters, to commit to more ambitious reduction targets to limit global warming to well below 2°C and aim for keeping the 1.5°C goal alive.
   
   
2. Focus on climate finance
   COP29 is often being referred to as the “Finance COP“, because for the first time in 15 years, countries will need to agree to a new global finance goal, known as the New Collective Quantified Goal (NCQG); updating the previous target where developed countries pledge to commit $100 billion a year by 2020 to help developing countries mitigate and adapt to climate change. Expectations are high for countries to commit to new, increased climate finance targets that will replace the previous annual commitment to address the financial needs of developing countries in their fight against climate change.
   
   
3. Climate change adaptation
   “Investing in adaptation makes a lot more sense than waiting and trying to catch up later.” The narrative is shifting from a predominantly mitigation focused one, to one that considers the impacts already faced by the challenges brought on by climate change. Following on from COP28, there will likely be significant discussions on how to deliver funding for adaptation. There is hope that the mechanisms to support these initiatives will be strengthened, offering clearer pathways for the increasingly crucial compensation and support.
   
   
4. Phasing down fossil fuels
   The progress made at COP28 towards a transition away from fossil fuels will need to be further developed. COP29 will likely aim to solidify commitments towards phasing down and out the use of oil, gas, and coal, with an increased focus on responsibility and timelines. Here, we hope to see India facing the limelight, as one of the largest coal consumers.

True to form, COP29 is already involved in controversy, with record casting a shadow over the summit. Concerns have mounted over the host country’s commitment to an inclusive environment, with reports indicating intensified crackdowns on dissent, including arrests of activists, journalists, and government critics. This behaviour has drawn criticism from international observers, who argue it undermines the cooperative spirit essential for climate action.

Amnesty International has stressed that effective climate solutions must uphold human rights, especially for vulnerable groups silenced by their governments. Civil society and several nations are expected to press Azerbaijan on these issues, highlighting that all voices must be heard, especially those of indigenous communities and activists, as they remain a key part of achieving just climate solutions.

This situation is a reminder that all nations have their battles to tackle. For some, it is their commitment to climate justice, while for others, it is the pressing need to uphold human rights, which are intrinsically linked, and any effective climate solution must consider both aspects.

As COP29 approaches, we are readying to help our clients navigate the dynamic landscape of climate policies and their implications. Nvalue will be closely following COP29 to stay updated on the latest developments and insights, ensuring our commitment remains consistent in providing the tools and insights needed to support you on this critical journey.

If you require support along your sustainability journey, please don’t hesitate to reach out to our dedicated team of experts. We are here to discuss how we can best meet your needs.