AIB statistics analysis
It is growing demand and production
The AIB released the updated data for its members’ GO statistics as of July 2022 (included). This article provides you with a summary of the statistics. In the analysis, the information is related to the production side.
A persistent rise in production
The growth of the Guarantees of Origin market doesn’t stop, and the data released so far are confirming the trend. According to AIB data, there was a 64 TWh rise in total production in 2021 over 2020. Compared to 679 TWh in 2020 and 600 TWh in 2019, there were more than 743 TWh of Renewable GOs issued in 2021. As a result, when compared to the year before, the number of GOs issued grew by 9.45% in 2021.
The main reason for this growth is the increase in AIB Hub member countries. While another reason is the growing number of countries that have decided to auction the Guarantees of Origin from plants that receive public subsidies, like France and Portugal.
The Nordic countries, France, and Italy are confirmed as the countries that issue the greatest number of Guarantees of Origin, while the following countries saw the biggest growth from 2020 to 2021: Portugal – 17 TWh, France – 17 TWh, and Spain – 9.8 TWh.
A stronger demand
The AIB statistics also show an increase in the demand side, which is reflected by the number of Guarantees of Origin that are cancelled every year. In fact, in 2021 the number of canceled Guarantees of Origin increased by 10 TWh, i.e. an increase of 1.7% compared to 2020. The positive trend is confirmed along the years, passing from a total of 568 TWh of cancelled Guarantees of Origin in 2019, to 636 TWh in 2020 and finally to 646 TWh in 2021.
The biggest increase in the demand came from France, with 25.8 TWh more compared to 2020. Also in Germany and Italy the volume of Guarantees of Origin cancelled grew by respectively 12 TWh and 11 TWh.
The number of expired Guarantees of Origin has declined over the past 4 years, confirming the solidity of the growth of this market.
In conclusion, according to the AIB statistics, both issued and canceled GOs hit a record level in 2021, confirming the growing trend in the renewable electricity market. A great step forward has been done by France, with the greatest increase. While it is too soon to assess 2022 performance, 2021 numbers on the demand side will probably grow even more, since the disclosure period for 2021 in Germany ends in December 2022.